Bombing Yemen Does Not Benefit America, but It Boosts Iran, Russia and China - Opinion - Haaretz.com
The Houthi militia in northern Yemen succeeded. They lured the United States into launching a military attack against well over 80 targets at 28 sites against this impoverished, war-torn nation and a second strike that hit a Houthi radar site.
Several former high-ranking U.S. military officers urged the Biden administration to take a more lethal, hawkish approach to defend freedom of navigation from Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. President Joe Biden should not have taken the bait. A U.S. air war against Yemen will be a strategic and costly mistake unlikely to deter the Houthis, while risking both regional and global escalation.
This week, the region saw the first two rounds between the Houthis and the U.S. There will be other rounds, and yet there is no clarity as to the end game. The Houthis in fact will be emboldened by this attack. They have seized control of Sanna, Yemen's capital, in 2014, effectively defeated Saudi Arabia in a long and brutal conflict during the ensuing years, and now seek to realize its governing slogan "God Is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam".
Tensions with the Iranian-aligned Houthis began, when, in response to Israel's war against Hamas, they effectively shut down 20 percent of all global shipping from Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal through the Red Sea. The Houthis have launched anti-ship ballistic missiles, land attack cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and fast boats in over two dozen attacks against commercial cargo ships and the U.S. navy since November 17. Shipping giant, Maersk, now is diverting all container vessels from Red Sea routes around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. Houthi disruption of shipping lines affects the supply chain and unnecessarily increases commodity costs across the globe.
In this image provided by the UK Ministry of Defence taken on Thursday shows an RAF Typhoon aircraft taking off from RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, for a mission to strike targets in Yemen in the U.S.-led mission.Credit: Sgt Lee Goddard /AP
To meet the biggest threat to shipping in decades, the Biden administration will need to build a real coalition to defend freedom of navigation. In December, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational maritime force of 20 nations to keep Red Sea shipping open. But, nearly half of partner nations are unnamed. Many of the others have made inconsequential contributions. Canada offered three staff, the Netherlands two people, and Norway ten staff.
Italy, India and France opted to send ships to the region outside of coalition control, probably creating more command and control challenges than operational value. Red Sea nations, including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the internationally recognized government of Yemen have not participated in defending their very own navigational rights, almost certainly in an attempt to disassociate from Israel. Other trading nations, including Germany, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea, are not participating. The Biden administration will have to separate global freedom of navigation from Israel's war with Hamas; it can start by ensuring there are no free riders on the Red Sea. Nations which ship cargo through the Suez canal must participate.
Second, this week's U.S. attack on northern Yemen itself will not deter the Houthis. In fact, it may validate the militia's self-described divine mission and reinforce its relationship with Iran. The leader of this revolutionary Zaidi Muslim movement, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, and his inner circle are almost certainly immune from U.S. bombing in the mountainous, remote region.
Beginning in 2015 with U.S. support, Saudi Arabia and its coalition conducted an air campaign against Houthi command and control centers and military operations. The result: the Houthis consolidated power, adapted new Iranian technologies, and effectively pushed Saudi Arabia out of northern Yemen. A continued U.S. air war will not likely deter the Houthis from launching cheap drones and improvised missiles against Red Sea commercial shipping.
This Nov. 12, 2018 photo shows The USS Carney in the Mediterranean Sea. The American warship and multiple commercial ships have come under attack in the Red Sea, the Pentagon says.Credit: Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Ryan U. Kledzik /AP
Houthi leadership is also effectively immune from U.S. economic sanctions. The U.S. Treasury may seek to re-impose sanctions against the Houthis as it did initially at the end of the Trump administration. But, Houthi leadership does not bank, trade, invest, shop, or travel in the west. Sanctions may actually shift the burden of Yemen's own humanitarian crises away from the Houthis themselves. U.S. policy elites are keen to "do something" but sanctions will not have a meaningful impact on Houthi decision- making.
The Biden administration's strategic, best policy option is to strengthen the maritime task force substantially so the Houthis understand that the world supports freedom of navigation. This coalition will have the right to defend itself from Houthi aggression and protect international shipping in the Red Sea. While imperfect and not a completely satisfying solution, a more robust, global maritime task force is the most prudent military means to support freedom of navigation and trade. Further, the U.S. should support Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as its own diplomatic efforts at ending the Yemen conflict, not escalate it.
Finally, a more robust coalition will also send an unmistakable message to China, which seeks to dominate the South China Sea shipping routes. A unified global maritime coalition defending unimpeded sea shipping sends that signal to China. Conversely, a Biden administration, campaigning for re-election and possibly bogged down in an air war against an impoverished country may inadvertently offer China the opportunity to expand its reach into the South China Sea. The right to trade on the high seas requires a clear policy more substantive than the current U.S. led response, yet simultaneously not as risky as an air war in Yemen.
Protesters burn the U.S. flag during a gathering in support of Yemen in front of the British embassy in Tehran, Iran, on Friday.Credit: WANA NEWS AGENCY/ REUTERS
The world is on edge. The Middle East is consumed by the Israel-Hamas war, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, and the risk of spillover between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran and its proxies in Iraq and Syria remain an active threat. The Russian war against Ukraine and the destabilizing risk to Eastern Europe will soon enter its third year with no end in sight. China's president Xi Jinping is threatening to seize Taiwan. Escalatory events could trigger unknown outcomes, just as the psychotic Hamas attack on October 7th has unforeseeably led to a U.S. strike against the Houthis in northern Yemen. While the U.S. military may have destroyed a few towers or killed a few low level Houthi personnel in Yemen, it does not change the strategic conundrum.
Right now, there is no exit to the regional war in the Middle East. This attack on Yemen could certainly lead to direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. Critically, a widening conflict also gives advantage to Russia in Ukraine and China with its eye toward Taiwan. Russia and China have every incentive to distract the U.S. further by fueling Iranian objectives against Israel. The world is facing not just a regional war, but a potential global escalation where great power ambitions undergird Middle East chaos and violence. Freedom of navigation through the Red Sea is critical for global trade, and it is an important American interest. Bombing northern Yemen is not.
R. David Harden is the former assistant administrator at USAID's bureau for democracy, conflict and humanitarian assistance who also led USAID operations in the West Bank and Gaza, Libya Yemen and Iraq from 2005-2018. On Twitter: @Dave_Harden
Lieutenant Colonel (Ret) Adam Clements was a former U.S. Army Attache to Yemen and worked extensively on Arabian Peninsula strategy and policy at the Pentagon.